Sens. Kamala HarrisKamala Devi HarrisRand Paul introduces bill to end no-knock warrants The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook McEnany says Juneteenth is a very ‘meaningful’ day to Trump MORE (D-Calif.) and Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenWarren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases OVERNIGHT DEFENSE: Joint Chiefs chairman says he regrets participating in Trump photo-op | GOP senators back Joint Chiefs chairman who voiced regret over Trump photo-op | Senate panel approves 0B defense policy bill Trump on collision course with Congress over bases with Confederate names MORE (D-Mass.) were the two biggest winners, while former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenHillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police Trump finalizing executive order calling on police to use ‘force with compassion’ The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook MORE lost ground on prediction and betting markets after the first two Democratic debates this week.
As of Friday morning Harris, who impressed with a direct attack on Biden, was tied with Warren on top of PredictIt, a market where participants bet on whether a candidate will, or will not, become the party’s nominee.
On Bovada and BetOnline, which take a more traditional approach to reflect odds, Harris and Warren propelled themselves into the same tier as Biden, with Harris even becoming the favorite to win the nomination in least one market.
Another big climber was former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro, who capitalized on his detailed immigration stances.
He was a distant outsider on most markets, but has now placed himself near Sen. Cory BookerCory Anthony BookerRand Paul introduces bill to end no-knock warrants Black lawmakers unveil bill to remove Confederate statues from Capitol Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk MORE (D-N.J.) and former Rep. Beto O’RourkeBeto O’RourkeBiden will help close out Texas Democrats’ virtual convention: report O’Rourke on Texas reopening: ‘Dangerous, dumb and weak’ Parties gear up for battle over Texas state House MORE (D-Texas) who have been polling a few points above him in state and local polls.
Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersThe Hill’s 12:30 Report: Milley apologizes for church photo-op Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness MORE (I-Vt.) and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPete ButtigiegScaled-back Pride Month poses challenges for fundraising, outreach Biden hopes to pick VP by Aug. 1 It’s as if a Trump operative infiltrated the Democratic primary process MORE, two of the other top tier candidates, remained generally stable.
But Biden lost ground in two of the three betting markets being tracked by The Hill, after the former vice president was widely seen as having faltered on Thursday night’s debate.
The Hill tracked three of the biggest markets on Wednesday, just hours before the start of the first of the two Democratic primary debates this week.
Here is how the 2020 candidates have shifted now that the debates have concluded.
The platform is the most popular political prediction market. Modeled like a stock market, participants purchase shares of whether a candidate will, or will not, become the nominee — a decision that can increase or decrease the value assigned to each share.
21 cents: Warren (-1), Harris (+9)
20 cents: Biden (-6)
15 cents: Buttigieg (+2)
14 cents: Sanders (-1)
9 cents: Entrepreneur Andrew YangAndrew YangGeorge Floyd protests show corporations must support racial and economic equality Andrew Yang discusses his universal basic income pilot program Andrew Yang on the George Floyd protests in Minneapolis MORE (-5)
5 cents: Booker (0)
4 cents: Castro (+3), Rep. Tulsi GabbardTulsi GabbardGabbard drops defamation lawsuit against Clinton It’s as if a Trump operative infiltrated the Democratic primary process 125 lawmakers urge Trump administration to support National Guard troops amid pandemic MORE (D-Hawaii) (0)
2 cents: Sen. Amy KlobucharAmy KlobucharHillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police Democrats demand Republican leaders examine election challenges after Georgia voting chaos Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk MORE (D-Minn.) (-2), O’Rourke (-3)
1 cent: Sen. Kirsten GillibrandKirsten GillibrandWarren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Warren, Pressley introduce bill to make it a crime for police officers to deny medical care to people in custody Senate Dems press DOJ over coronavirus safety precautions in juvenile detention centers MORE (N.Y.) (-1), no change: Sen. Michael BennetMichael Farrand BennetSome realistic solutions for income inequality Democratic senators kneel during moment of silence for George Floyd 21 senators urge Pentagon against military use to curb nationwide protests MORE (Colo.), Reps. Tim RyanTimothy (Tim) RyanMinnesota AG Keith Ellison says racism is a bigger problem than police behavior; 21 states see uptick in cases amid efforts to reopen Congress must fill the leadership void Pelosi pushes to unite party on coronavirus bill despite grumbling from left MORE (Ohio) and Eric SwalwellEric Michael SwalwellNASCAR bans display of Confederate flag from events and properties Gloves come off as Democrats fight for House seat in California Grenell says intelligence community working to declassify Flynn-Kislyak transcripts MORE (Calif.), Washington Gov. Jay InsleeJay Robert InsleeInslee calls on Trump to ‘stay out of Washington state’s business’ Seattle mayor responds to Trump: ‘Go back to your bunker’ Trump warns he will take back Seattle from ‘ugly Anarchists’ if local leaders don’t act MORE, Montana Gov. Steve BullockSteve BullockKoch-backed group launches ad campaign to support four vulnerable GOP senators Overnight Energy: US Park Police say ‘tear gas’ statements were ‘mistake’ | Trump to reopen area off New England coast for fishing | Vulnerable Republicans embrace green issues Vulnerable Republicans embrace green issues in battle to save seats MORE, former Colorado Gov. John HickenlooperJohn HickenlooperGun control group rolls out first round of Senate endorsements The Hill’s Campaign Report: Republicans go on attack over calls to ‘defund the police’ Hickenlooper ethics questions open him up to attack MORE, former Rep. John DelaneyJohn DelaneyThe Hill’s Coronavirus Report: Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas says country needs to rethink what ‘policing’ means; US cases surpass 2 million with no end to pandemic in sight Minnesota AG Keith Ellison says racism is a bigger problem than police behavior; 21 states see uptick in cases amid efforts to reopen The Hill’s Coronavirus Report: Singapore Minister for Foreign Affairs Vivian Balakrishnan says there will be consequences from fraying US-China relations; WHO walks back claims on asymptomatic spread of virus MORE (Md.), author Marianne WilliamsonMarianne WilliamsonMarianne Williamson touts endorsements for progressive congressional candidates The Hill’s 12:30 Report: Warren becomes latest 2020 rival to back Biden The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden looks to stretch lead in Tuesday contests MORE, New York City Mayor Bill de BlasioBill de BlasioProtesters splash red paint on NYC streets to symbolize blood De Blasio: Robert E Lee’s ‘name should be taken off everything in America, period’ House Democratic whip pushes back on calls to defund police: We need to focus on reform MORE
Bovada uses more traditional betting odds, like the ones for sporting events. Numbers reflect potential gains, with favorite candidates returning less than those seen as long-shot candidates.
Note: Negative shifts indicate higher probability of winning
+200: Biden (0)
+450: Harris (-100), Warren (-250)
+500: Buttigieg (+100)
+550: Sanders (+100)
+1,300: Yang (+100)
+1,800: O’Rourke (0)
+2,500: Gabbard (-500)
+4,000: Klobuchar (0), Booker (+700)
+8,000: Gillibrand (0)
+10,000: Castro (+2,000), de Blasio (N/A), Swalwell (N/A), Inslee (N/A), Delaney (N/A), Hickenlooper (N/A), Williamson (N/A), Bennet (N/A), Ryan (N/A)
BetOnline uses the same odds system as Bovada.
Note: Negative shifts indicate higher probability of winning
+250: Harris (-550)
+325: Biden (+150)
+450: Warren (+100)
+800: Sanders (0), Buttigieg (+300)
+1,200: Yang (+200)
+2,500: Booker (-800), Castro (-2,500)
+4,000: O’Rourke (+1,500)
+5,000: Gillibrand (0), Klobuchar (0), Gabbard (0)
+10,000: Hickenlooper (0), Delaney (0), Ryan (0), de Blasio (0), Rep. Seth Moulton (Mass.) (0), Bullock (0), Inslee (0), Swalwell (0), Bennet (0)
+20,000: Williamson (N/A)
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